The Numbers Are Going Down. That Doesn’t Mean We’re Done.
Content Warning: This post discusses addiction, overdose, fentanyl, drug-related deaths, and emerging substances in the illegal drug supply. Please read with care. 💜
I have been so damn busy the last couple of weeks that I honestly hadn’t comprehended how far into the month we are! I didn’t realize we were already almost a couple of weeks into the month—let alone that it was September.
Then it finally dawned on me when I was driving this morning:
It’s National Recovery Month.
And I honestly cannot believe I let this much of September go by without acknowledging it.
So first, I apologize for not talking about it sooner, because this is one of the most important awareness months of the year to me personally. Addiction and recovery have affected so much of my life, the people I love, the work I do now, and many of the things I write about here.
So for the rest of September, we’re going to be talking about addiction and recovery-related topics.
But before we get into some of those deeper conversations, I thought I’d start with a Mini Detour and look at something I haven’t checked closely in a while:
Where are we actually at in the overdose crisis right now?
“Although the world is full of suffering, it is full also of the overcoming of it.”
— Helen Keller
Finally, There Is Some Good News in This Area
It seems that the numbers are going down! And not by a tiny amount.
In 2015, there were 52,404 drug overdose deaths in the United States.
By 2019, that number had climbed to 70,630.
Then 2020 happened. COVID happened.
Deaths jumped to 91,799 in a single year.
They rose again to 106,699 in 2021.
Then peaked at 107,941 in 2022.
Then the direction finally started changing.
Deaths fell slightly in 2023 and then dropped dramatically to 79,384 in 2024.
The overdose crisis obviously did not begin with COVID. But looking at the graph, the acceleration around 2020 is hard to miss.
From 2019 to the 2022 peak, overdose deaths increased by more than 50%.
COVID did not create the overdose crisis, but an already terrible crisis became significantly worse during those years. And now, thankfully, we are finally seeing that curve move substantially in the other direction. And it is for many different reasons we will discuss further.
“We must accept the finite disappointment and yet cling to the infinite hope.”
— Martin Luther King Jr.
But Is It Just Fentanyl?
That was one of my first questions.
I have heard so much about fentanyl over the last several years, especially after the loss of Dustin, that I wondered whether the recent improvement was basically just fentanyl-related deaths falling. But it isn’t!
From 2023 to 2024, the overdose death rate involving synthetic opioids other than methadone:
Fentanyl fell 35.6%.
Heroin fell 33.3%.
Cocaine fell 26.7%.
Opioids such as Oxycodone and Hydrocodone fell 20.7%.
Psychostimulants, which include methamphetamine, fell 19.8%.
But looking at only two years doesn’t show how much the crisis itself has changed.
That graph makes one thing pretty clear:
The drug crisis didn’t just get bigger. It changed.
Synthetic opioid deaths exploded.
Psychostimulant and cocaine deaths climbed dramatically.
Heroin went the opposite direction, dropping from more than 15,000 deaths in 2016 and 2017 to fewer than 3,000 in 2024.
One important thing to remember: these categories overlap. If multiple substances contribute to one overdose death, that death can appear in more than one category.
“I learned that courage was not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it.”
— Nelson Mandela
So What Is Actually Working?
There probably isn’t one single answer.
Better access to treatment, overdose prevention, naloxone, education, and harm reduction all matter. And I think the decline is a reminder that these efforts are worth continuing and need to continue.
Treatment works.
Education works.
Awareness works.
Prevention works.
Harm reduction works.
Narcan works.
Keeping somebody alive long enough to have another opportunity to recover works.
So there is not one perfect answer to why we are seeing a decline. I think its a combination of all these things along with people being back to work from COVID, etc.
“Addiction, the big terrible thing, is far too powerful for anyone to defeat alone.”
— Matthew Perry
But That Doesn’t Mean the Drug Supply Is Safe
While overdose deaths are falling, the illegal drug supply is still changing.
One substance getting much more attention right now is medetomidine, sometimes called “rhino tranq.”
Medetomidine is a sedative that is not approved for human use and is being found primarily mixed with illegally manufactured fentanyl.
Reports submitted to the National Forensic Laboratory Information System increased from 247 in 2023 to 2,616 in 2024 and 8,233 in 2025.
Those numbers are drug reports, not overdose deaths, but the increase shows just how quickly the illegal drug supply can change.
Medetomidine isn’t the only concern. Xylazine and other emerging substances continue to appear as well.
So yes, overdose deaths can be going down while the drug supply is still incredibly dangerous.
Both can be and is true.
“If I hadn’t finally taken the big step of asking for help 30 years ago, I’d be dead.”
— Elton John
People Don’t Always Know What They’re Taking
Yes, using illegal drugs involves risk.
But there is a difference between knowingly taking a risk and not even knowing what substance you are actually taking. In my opinion and the opinion of many courts today, it is murder to sell these drugs without telling the buyers what they are actually buying.
Someone may believe they are taking one drug and consume several thinking that their tolerance is higher, not knowing there is a drug 50-100x stronger than what they had bought.
Naloxone reverses opioids. It does not reverse non-opioid sedatives such as medetomidine. But if an opioid overdose is suspected, give naloxone anyway, and call 911 immediately. Because medetomidine is frequently found with fentanyl, naloxone can still save someone’s life when an opioid is involved.
“If there is no struggle, there is no progress.”
— Frederick Douglass
We Should Still Celebrate the Progress
I don’t want the scary part of this conversation to erase the good part, because overall this really is good news.
Tens of thousands fewer people are dying every year than they were at the height of this crisis. Those aren’t just numbers moving downward on a graph.
Those are people.
Mothers who didn’t have to bury their children.
Children who still have a parent.
Partners who didn’t have to make an impossible phone call.
Friends who got another birthday.
And people struggling with addiction who got another chance.
I know personally what the other side of that statistic looks like. So seeing those numbers finally moving downward means something to me.
We should celebrate it! But we shouldn’t confuse progress with problem solved. We still have a shitload of work to do!
“You don’t get over an addiction by stopping using. You recover by creating a new life where it is easier to not use. If you don’t create a new life, then all the factors that brought you to your addiction will catch up with you again.”
– Anonymous
What We’re Talking About for the Rest of Recovery Month
For the rest of September, I’m planning to talk more about addiction, recovery, trauma, relapse, relationships, and what recovery really looks like beyond simply stopping the substance.
There is so much more to addiction than the substance itself, and there is a hell of a lot more to recovery than counting sober days!
If there is something specific related to addiction or recovery that you would like me to discuss, please comment below or email me. I would genuinely love to know what you would like to see covered. I had the blogs planned out, but after the realization of the month today, I have changed the plan and have a pretty good idea as to what I am going to write about. However, that can easily change!
I may have gotten a late start acknowledging Recovery Month this year, but we’re definitely not wasting the rest of it.
Thanks for reading! Until next week, keep healing, keep growing, and keep telling your truth! 💜
“Your best days are ahead of you. The movie starts when the guy gets sober and puts his life back together; it doesn’t end there.”
– Bucky Sinister
References
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. Drug Overdose Deaths in the United States, 2023–2024. NCHS Data Brief No. 549, January 2026.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. Drug Overdose Deaths in the United States, 2003–2023. NCHS Data Brief No. 522, December 2024.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Medetomidine Situation Summary. Updated April 2026.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. Provisional Drug Overdose Death Counts for Specific Drugs.
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